It’s prediction time! My “official” predictions for the 2022 election are below. Some perfunctory notes, however. On a national scale, the midterm was always likely to to be against the Democrats since they are the Presidential party in power. In a neutral environment, the Democrats were likely to lose the House of Representatives and be endangered in the Senate with the only saving grace being that the GOP started with so many Senate seats already which limits their pick-up opportunities.
However, not all else is equal. After the disastrous Afghanistan pull-out, President Biden’s approval rating went permanently south (give or take a mild dead cat bounce or two). Unfortunately for the Democrats, this disapproval was not limited to the President, nor was it limited simply by association with the President, but by being in unified control of Congress and the Presidency at a time of the highest inflation in four decades, complete with soaring gas prices at the pump. There are other factors, as well, the Covid restrictions lasting well after the vaccines were available combined with Democratic Governors’ heavy handed tactics add to the Democrats problems. The Dobbs decision that reversed Roe v. Wade did have an impact, but that impact has faded (though there may be a small impact on the margins in many states) as most women who aren’t hyper-partisan abortion advocates have realized that nothing much has changed, which has shifted their focus back to inflation and the struggle of paying for groceries and gas. To wit: The political environment is bad for the Democrats. Nonetheless, your humble author will constrain that impulse to assign wins for all close or potentially close races to the Republicans
Congress
On a Federal level, it’s becoming accepted that the Republicans will pick up the House of Representatives. The question is by how much? They Democrats’ current majority is so slim, that even a couple dozen pick-ups would mean a commanding majority. With Republicans poised to pick up seats in Blue states like New York, Rhode Island, Connecticut, and Oregon, your humble author is on the Bullish side of things and will place the under/over at 242 for the GOP and thus a pick-up of 30 seats in the House of Representatives.
The Senate is far more difficult terrain for the Republicans. A plethora of subpar candidates who may only be saved by the combination of national environment and in many cases bad Democratic candidate to go up against. In a more neutral environment with neutral candidates, a continued 50/50 split would seem likely. But we are not in a neutral environment, and the anti-Democratic sentiment in the House will likely be enough to give the Republican party a good night in the Senate. Your humble author predicts 54R-44D-2I in the Senate.
Ohio and North Carolina were never in any threat of being picked up by the Democrats. Though Vance was a less-than-stellar candidate, the combination of money, Gubernatorial coattails, and a favorable political environment meant that Ohio was always safe Republican.
Of the Republican held seats that could flip, the only one that was at serious Democratic pick-up opportunity was Pennsylvania. Dr. Oz was a poor choice and likely would be a complete goner as a celebrity carpetbagger from New Jersey… but his opponent just happens to be a stroke victim with very obvious cognitive problems. While this race is close, your humble author sees a narrow Oz victory.
Now come the GOP pick-up opportunities, which aren’t many due to all the proverbial low hanging fruit being taken in previous cycles for this Senate class. What ought to have been an easy pick-up opportunity in Georgia was complicated with a less than politically stellar football star, Herschel Walker, with a questionable past. However, the incumbent Democrat, Raphael Warnock, has his own questionable past. While things may not even out there, the national environment, Gov. Kemp’s likely election blow-out over United Earth’s President, and the fact that Walker is a beloved college football star will put him over the 50% mark to win outright, though well behind Kemp.
The next likely Republican pick-up is Nevada, which will be discussed below.
After that 51st or 52nd seat, it become more difficult for the Republicans. The four most likely Republican pick-ups are Arizona, New Hampshire, Colorado, and Washington. The Republicans will most likely win some but not all of those seats.
Predicted GOP pick-ups: Masters is a less than stellar candidate. However, Sen. Kelly is a non-entity and votes solidly with the liberal Democrats. In a neutral environment, that might have been all Kelly needed. However, with a popular TV anchor doing well for the Governor’s race and a strong GOP wind at his back, Masters will likely be pushed-pulled over the line. The race that your humble author is most unsure about is New Hampshire. It could honestly go either way and your humble auther believes this to be a true toss-up. Though this could very well go to the incumbant Sen. Hassan, the late surge by Bolduc in the polls combined with a complete lack of early voting, Gov. Sununu’s coattails, and that strong GOP wind at his back leads me to pick Bolduc over Sen. Hassan.
Predicted GOP close-but-no-cigar races: Both Colorado and Washington has a handful of oh-so-tempting close polls for the Republicans, and about as good of Republican candidates as you could hope for Colorado and Washington, respectively, O’Dea and Smiley. But they will likely both fall short, especially with the Blue tilt of both states and incumbent Senators who aren’t as unpopular many other Democratic politicians. However, if the Republican wave is truly a tsunami, then it isn’t out of the question that one or both might squeak by in victory.
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