So, despite being fairly accurate in midterms, but after overestimating Republican chances in 2012 and underestimating Republican chances in 2016, how did your humble author do in 2020? Fairly well. And no, there is no “coup”, either from the “Deep State/Stonecutters” or “Führer Drumpf”.

The most likely scenario did indeed give Biden a win, but underestimated the final Electoral College count, according to the veritable Decision Desk HQ. Your humble author considered a 291-247 Electoral College win the most likely, with Biden sweeping the rust belts states Trump flipped that George W. Bush couldn’t (Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan), as well as Arizona, which has been trending towards the Democrats along with the rest of the Southwest. However, your humble author considered a 306-232 win for Biden to be almost as likely; the main differential between the prediction and the final results is that Trump kept the Elector from Maine’s 2nd district and kept North Carolina while losing Georgia. Biden won the Electoral college with fewer votes across three states than Trump in 2016 did: ca 43,000 votes across Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona in 2016 vs. 78,000 across Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania in 2020. However, Biden increased his relative lead compared to Hillary Clinton with an outright majority in the popular vote that Hillary couldn’t achieve.
Down ballot, the Republicans did better than your humble author predicted, in large part due to a higher than expected willingness of anti-Trump/pro-GOP voters to split the ballot, or an unwillingness of many Biden voters to vote for increasingly and openly hardcore Leftist Democratic party. In North Carolina, Tillis was able to eek out a win in North Carolina proving that his opponents dalliances didn’t come to light to late to matter. In Maine, Collins was able to get enough vote to avoid the run-off system that has been established in Maine, demonstrating that some Republicans still have and can run on their own brand, independent of the top of the ticket. The Georgia races are yet to be determined, with both unsurprisingly going to a January run-off.
In the House of Representatives, the GOP did indeed see a “dead cat bounce” in the House winning many seats lost in 2018. But the GOP did better than almost everyone else thought and as of the writing of this article won at least 208 seats while leading in an additional 5. This leaves the Democrats with a narrow five vote margin in the House, which could easily lead to the GOP picking up the chamber in 2022 due to the GOP also doing well in legislative races including picking up new trifectas in New Hampshire and Alaska by picking up legislative chambers and Montana by picking up the Governorship, while the GOP lost no legislative chamber they did not already hold.













