{"id":5284,"date":"2014-03-11T12:50:12","date_gmt":"2014-03-11T19:50:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalhat.com\/?p=5284"},"modified":"2014-03-11T12:53:05","modified_gmt":"2014-03-11T19:53:05","slug":"six-californias-an-analysis-of-splitting-california-into-six-states","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/2014\/03\/11\/six-californias-an-analysis-of-splitting-california-into-six-states\/","title":{"rendered":"Six Californias: An Analysis of Splitting California Into Six States"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A Silicon Valley venture capitalist, Tim Draper, is circulating an initiative measure to split California into <a href=\"http:\/\/sixcalifornias.info\/\" target=\"_blank\">six states<\/a>.\u00a0 Here we present a quick look at what that would mean politically.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;First let us look how the state would be broken up:<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-5285\" title=\"Six Californias\" src=\"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/SixCalifornias.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"580\" height=\"657\" srcset=\"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/SixCalifornias.jpg 580w, https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/SixCalifornias-264x300.jpg 264w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 580px) 100vw, 580px\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Let us assign House seats by simply taking the current number (53) and assign them according to the <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.kqed.org\/lowdown\/2014\/02\/19\/six-states\" target=\"_blank\">percent<\/a> of the California&#8217;s <a href=\"http:\/\/www.usatoday.com\/story\/news\/nation-now\/2014\/02\/21\/california-six-states-plan-tim-draper\/5673283\/\" target=\"_blank\">population<\/a> in each, rounding appropriately, and then assigning the 53rd seat to the state most likely to get it we have:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>&#8220;Jefferson&#8221; = 1<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Northern California&#8221; = 5<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Silicon Valley&#8221; = 10<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Central California&#8221; = 6<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;West California&#8221; = 16<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Southern California&#8221; = 15<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Thus in each state would have the following electoral votes:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>&#8220;Jefferson&#8221; = 3<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Northern California&#8221; = 7<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Silicon Valley&#8221; = 12<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Central California&#8221; = 8<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;West California&#8221; = 18<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Southern California&#8221; = 17<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;To get a feel for the political situation in each of the new states, we&#8217;ll look at two recent elections:\u00a0 The 2010 Attorney General election, which was a near win for the Republicans with Steve Cooley, and the 2012 Presidential election.\u00a0 Though Sen. Feinstein received a slightly higher percentage of the vote, we will focus on Obama&#8217;s re-election to gauge the impact nationally.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><!--more--><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Presidential Elections<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;In two of the proposed states, Romney would have won those states, with an additional 11 EV. (States were &#8220;Jefferson&#8221; and &#8220;Central California&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;In a third state, the Republican Cooley would have won, but Obama would have squeaked by by middle-low single digits. (State was &#8220;South California,&#8221; comprising SoCal outside of L.A.). A truly purple state. It would yield about 17 EV.\u00a0\u00a0 This new state would be plurality Republican in registration.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A fourth (&#8220;Northern California&#8221;) voted for Obama, as well as the Dem in the A.G. race, but the Dem won those counties in a squeaker, making this proposed state a borderline\u00a0 one that could become purple in the future. In particular, with the correct demographic shift, it could easily go purple (it has liberal coastal elites and more conservative valley\/mountain area).<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The two states of &#8220;Silicon Valley&#8221; and &#8220;West Calfironia&#8221; would be hard core Dem\/Communist.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Obama won all of California&#8217;s 55 electoral votes.\u00a0 If the six states that were California been in place, Romney would have gotten 11 electoral votes, while Obama received 54 electoral vote.\u00a0 This would have been a net electoral vote gain of 12 for Romney.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;If &#8220;South California&#8221; had been a separate state, it would have been competitive, and perhaps even winnable by the Republican nominee, as seen by Cooley&#8217;s victory in those five counties making up &#8220;South California.&#8221;\u00a0 This would have resulted in 28 electoral voted for the Republican and only 37 for the Democrat.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">House of Representatives<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;When it came to the Congressional delegation, &#8220;Jefferson&#8221; would be solid GOP, and likely have a GOP legislature. &#8220;Central California&#8221; and &#8220;South California&#8221; would have majority GOP delegations and most likely majority GOP legislatures. &#8220;Northern California&#8221; would be probably 3:2 Dem:Rep, with a Democratic legislative majority. &#8220;Silicon Valley&#8221; would probably see the GOP drop to a third party behind Greens or the &#8220;Peace and Freedom&#8221; party. &#8220;West California&#8221; would have a few GOP seats, but otherwise be solid Dem.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">U.S. Senate<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Of the ten new Senators, assigning the current Cal Senators to &#8220;Silicon Valley,&#8221; one state that would always send Dems (L.A. dominated &#8220;West California&#8221;), two states that would likely send GOP (&#8220;Jefferson&#8221; and &#8220;Central California&#8221;), one that would probably send GOP, but an occasional Dem (&#8220;South California&#8221;), and one that would send Dems, but where the GOP has a fighting chance (&#8220;Northern California&#8221;)<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Future Politics<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The politics of the states would not remain static, though.\u00a0 Sacramento is dominated by Bay Area politicians, who are electorally supported by L.A. county.\u00a0 By confining the insanity to the state of &#8220;Silicon Valley,&#8221; the rest of the state would become much more conservative (even L.A., which is saying something).\u00a0 You&#8217;d have new states that were friendly to the sane and the conservative.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;We could easily see &#8220;Southern California&#8221; gaining a lot of population due to is moderate to conservative (or at least libertarian-conservative) leanings, in addition to the presence of established infrastructure.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The state of &#8220;Northern California&#8221; could even be converted to a relatively conservative area if there is enough of an influx \u2014 it would contain Napa county and Sonoma county, but be balanced by Placer county and the other mountain\/valley counties inland.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The bulk of the farmland, and control of much of the water, would be in the hands of GOP friendly &#8220;Central California&#8221; and would likely become a beacon for any and all farmers once again.\u00a0 They would control the water, which would give them a heck of a lot of power.\u00a0 What would happen to the Owens valley (from which L.A. stole its water), would be\u2026 interesting.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Heck, even &#8220;West California&#8221; would see a significant slowing of its Left-ward drift due to not being a border state anymore, as well as being free from San Francisco. <\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Education<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Aside from &#8220;Jefferson&#8221;, all other states would get at least one campus of the University of California (UC).<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>&#8220;Northern California&#8221; \u2014 UC Davis<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Silicon Valley&#8221; \u2014 UC Berkeley, UC San Francisco (medical school only), UC Santa Cruz<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Central California&#8221; \u2014 UC Merced<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;West California&#8221; \u2014 UC Santa Barbara, UCLA<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Southern California&#8221; \u2014 UC Irvine, UC Riverside, UC San Diego<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;Jefferson&#8221; wouldn&#8217;t get a UC, but would get Cal State Chico.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Interestingly, it might prompt the conservative eastern parts of Oregon and even Washington to demand the right to join &#8220;Jefferson&#8221;\u2026<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\">Conclusion<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;The break-up of California along the proposed boundaries would result in two Red states, one Purple state, and three Blue states which would range from almost Purple to &#8220;Left of Stalin.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p><meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\"><meta name=\"twitter:site\" content=\"@PoliticHatblog\"><meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@ThePoliticalhat\"><meta name=\"twitter:title\" content=\"Six Californias: An Analysis of Splitting California Into Six States\"><meta name=\"twitter:description\" content=\"A Silicon Valley venture capitalist, Tim Draper, is circulating an initiative measure to split California into six states.  Here we present a quick look at what that would mean politically.\"><meta name=\"twitter:image:src\" content=\"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/SixCalifornias.jpg\"><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;A Silicon Valley venture capitalist, Tim Draper, is circulating an initiative measure to split California into six states.\u00a0 Here we present a quick look at what that would mean politically. &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;First let us look how the state would be broken &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/2014\/03\/11\/six-californias-an-analysis-of-splitting-california-into-six-states\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":5285,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13,1],"tags":[15,33,25,3],"class_list":["post-5284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-elections","category-uncategorized","tag-democrats","tag-gop","tag-higher-ed","tag-obama"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5284","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5284"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5284\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5292,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5284\/revisions\/5292"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/5285"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5284"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5284"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5284"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}