{"id":402,"date":"2012-10-30T19:18:14","date_gmt":"2012-10-31T03:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/politicalhat.com\/?p=402"},"modified":"2012-11-01T22:24:03","modified_gmt":"2012-11-02T06:24:03","slug":"nevada-early-vote-update-10th-day-of-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/2012\/10\/30\/nevada-early-vote-update-10th-day-of-14\/","title":{"rendered":"Nevada Early Vote Update (10th Day of 14)"},"content":{"rendered":"

     After the 10th<\/sup> day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 34K raw votes, which was 2K less than the 36K it was the previous day.\u00a0 Washoe county continues to trend towards being a wash (pun intended), so only the strong GOP turnout amongst the rural counties will even partially blunt the Democratic raw vote advantage in Clark County of about 47K.\u00a0 After ten day of early voting in 2008, the Democrats had an advantage of 61K.\u00a0 The Democrats raw vote advantage is down 79% in Clark County from 2008, though the total number of votes has increased by about 40%.\u00a0 This results in a 56% reduction in their vote advantage compared to 2008 for early voting.\u00a0 Absentees are coming in at just under 1<\/sup>\/5<\/sub> of the early votes.<\/p>\n

     At this 56% reduction in advantage for the Democrats, their projected early vote lead will be about 62K in Clark County.\u00a0 With Washoe coming in about even, and the rural counties coming in at perhaps 25K in favor of the Republicans total, this would result in the Democrats having a raw vote lead of 40K.\u00a0 With an 80% turnout, this would result in a lead for Obama of just over 4%.\u00a0 This is good news for Sen. Dean Heller, who has been polling 4-6% ahead of Auton-American Shelley Berkley (D – Nestene Consiousness).<\/p>\n

     All of the above assumes that 2012 trends like in 2008 (with Democrat vote advantage shrunk to 56%, and 140% of the early voters).<\/p>\n

     After the 10th day of early voting (only five weekday days remaining):<\/p>\n

Nevada (statewide)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nGOP<\/td>\nDem<\/td>\nInd.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote*<\/td>\n36.5%<\/td>\n45.2%<\/td>\n18.3%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote + Absentee<\/td>\n37.5%<\/td>\n44.6%<\/td>\n17.9%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2008<\/td>\n31.6%<\/td>\n51.8%<\/td>\n17.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2010<\/td>\n40.2%<\/td>\n44.2%<\/td>\n15.7%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees is comparable to the Democrats statewide registration advantage of 7%.<\/p>\n

Clark County<\/strong><\/p>\n

Home of Las Vegas & 70% of states population<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nGOP<\/td>\nDem<\/td>\nInd.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote<\/td>\n32.8%<\/td>\n48.6%<\/td>\n18.6%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote (1st Week in 2008)<\/td>\n29.2%<\/td>\n54.4%<\/td>\n16.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote (1st Week in 2010)<\/td>\n38.2%<\/td>\n46.0%<\/td>\n15.8%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote + Absentee<\/td>\n33.7%<\/td>\n48.1%<\/td>\n18.2%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2008<\/td>\n30.6%<\/td>\n52.0%<\/td>\n17.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2010<\/td>\n37.4%<\/td>\n46.2%<\/td>\n16.4%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees for Clark County is \u00bd% below the Democrats registration advantage of 15%.<\/p>\n

Washoe County<\/strong><\/p>\n

Home of Reno and 20% of the state\u2019s population<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
<\/td>\nGOP<\/td>\nDem<\/td>\nInd.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote<\/td>\n40.2%<\/td>\n43.1%<\/td>\n17.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Early Vote + Absentee*<\/td>\n40.8%<\/td>\n41.8%<\/td>\n17.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2008<\/td>\n35.3%<\/td>\n47.1%<\/td>\n17.5%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Total Early 2010<\/td>\n44.7%<\/td>\n40.3%<\/td>\n15.0%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

*Washoe has not been updated their absentee ballot info on a timely basis.<\/em><\/p>\n

     Democratic advantage in early votes and absentees in Washoe is 1% above the even registration between Republicans and Democrats.<\/p>\n

     To summarize, not as bad as in 2008, but not as good at 2010. The Democrats raw vote lead after the first week of early voting (and probably \u2153 of the vote) is substantial, though the past few days have reduced that with their overall lead in raw voter numbers actually shrinking since the previous day.\u00a0 Obama seems at this point likely to win Nevada, though at a substantially narrowed margin.\u00a0 Heller\u2019s chances are dependent on a strong Obama-Heller voter block that can\u2019t stand that Auton-American Shelley Berkley, which may prove significant.<\/p>\n

     Let up be reminded of the words of Virgil:<\/p>\n

\u201cDo not yield to evil, Attack, attack, more boldly even than fortune seems to permit\u201d
\n\u2014 Virgil, \u201cThe \u00c6neid\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

     Until the next update\u2026<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

     After the 10th day of early voting, the Democrats have a lead of 34K raw votes, which was 2K less than the 36K it was the previous day.\u00a0 Washoe county continues to trend towards being a wash (pun intended), so … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[13],"tags":[15,27,28,3,4],"class_list":["post-402","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-elections","tag-democrats","tag-nevada","tag-nvsen","tag-obama","tag-romney"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=402"}],"version-history":[{"count":10,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":430,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/402\/revisions\/430"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=402"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=402"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/impeachreno.org\/politicalhat\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=402"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}